alyssaagard.dev
Alyssa I. Agard | Projects
The work here divides into two kinds: analytical software written to model defense and policy questions, and production software built and shipped for operational use. The two exercise different parts of the stack.The analytical tools are formal simulations delivered as interactive software. Each is structured rather than fitted, meaning its behavior follows from an explicit mathematical framework rather than regression against data, and each runs against documented empirical cases with its sources auditable inside the application. The numerical core is Python (numpy, matplotlib), presented through Streamlit for interactive analysis. For distribution without a backend, a tool ships either as a static HTML bundle emitted from the model or as a React single-page application; both run entirely client-side and deploy as static sites with no server, no install, and no external dependencies. Statistical and geospatial analysis uses R, SPSS, SQL, and ArcGIS. Current work extends the same parameterized method (explicit assumptions, exponential decay, sensitivity analysis) into financial modeling for questions of political economy.The production software is developed through Agard Research Associates as a registered Microsoft Partner and Developer. These are Office add-ins and administrative applications built on the Office.js API in JavaScript, HTML, and CSS, bundled with Webpack and deployed as static sites. A single codebase targets Word for desktop, Mac, and the web; rather than maintain separate builds, it uses runtime guards to absorb the API differences between platforms. They are released open-source under the MIT License.Everything here is reproducible and public. Source, documentation, and methodology are hosted on GitHub, and the analytical tools carry their validation cases and citations inside the software itself. Each entry below links to a live build and its repository.
alyssaagard.dev
Toolkits, Add-ins, & Applications
Cachet.
A cross-platform email signature management add-in for Microsoft Outlook and Gmail that gives administrators centralized control over branded signatures across their organization. Admins can build and assign signatures to users through three flexible authoring modes: a streamlined field-based form for quick setup, a familiar visual editor modeled on Outlook's native signature interface, and a raw HTML editor for full design control similar to Exchange transport rules. Each signature supports configurable fields including name, title, contact details, social links rendered as icons or text, uploaded logos with adjustable sizing, and written or linked legal disclaimers, all reorderable through a drag-and-drop layout. Users receive their assigned signatures automatically while retaining the option to fill in only the fields relevant to their role.
alyssaagard.dev
Forecast Modeling
The Primacy Premium:
A seeded, reproducible pipeline testing whether the pathway to Chinese military primacy explains more variance in defense and commercial outcomes than the endpoint.
Markets do not price whether the balance of power shifts. They price how.The Primacy Premium models three distinct pathways to a single 2035 endpoint, gradual accretion, American retrenchment, and violent demonstration, and asks whether the road taken explains more variance in defense and commercial outcomes than the destination itself. Every parameter is estimated from published data rather than assumed and ten thousand seeded draws per pathway propagate parameter, innovation, and event-timing uncertainty jointly.Three hypotheses were pre-committed and tested, with verdicts written by the pipeline rather than the author. The pathway effect holds: scored allied outcomes separate by a median 2.3 times the reserve currency channel, led by NATO Europe at 1.45 standard deviations. The reserve channel itself is the quietest, and its evidence is live: the renminbi settles 3.10 percent of global payments while holding 1.99 percent of allocated reserves.Seventeen Python scripts over fourteen published source families. Seeded and verified byte-identical across runs.
Toolkits, Add-ins, & Applications
Layout Toolkits:
Layout-toolkit-V1
Layout-toolkit-V2
Layout-toolkit-gdocs
A Microsoft Word add-in built with JavaScript, HTML, and CSS on the Office.js API, bundled with Webpack and deployed as a static site. Layout Toolkit provides six document templates, saveable brand profiles, page layout controls including columns and margins, and visual folding guides for print production. It runs on Word for desktop, Mac, and the web with a single codebase, using try/catch guards to handle platform-specific API differences. Free and open-source under the MIT License.
Simulations & Wargames
Wargame (Web + Local):
A Bridge of Gold: Monmouth, June 28, 1778
An interactive historical simulation of the Battle of Monmouth, playable from six American perspectives and grounded in the modern scholarly reconstruction of the battle. Extreme heat, which killed nearly as many men that day as combat did, drives the core mechanic, while original phase-based battlefield maps and an illustrated armory situate the player on documented ground. Every scene is tagged Documented, Reconstructed, or Legend, turning the field's historiographical disputes into gameplay rather than obscuring them.
Wargame (Web + Local):
ATLAS Wargame
ATLAS is a browser-based crisis wargaming platform modeled on the NSC simulation methodology used at the National Defense University, Naval War College, and RAND. Users navigate multi-turn crisis scenarios through the DIME framework, composing policy actions across all four instruments of national power while an algorithmic White Cell adjudicates outcomes, a Red Cell generates adversary responses, and an eight-level escalation ladder tracks the trajectory toward or away from conflict. The platform ships with two pre-built scenarios (Taiwan Strait and NATO Baltic flank), a custom scenario builder, randomized injects, force disposition tracking, and a comprehensive After Action Review. Fully standalone with no external dependencies, built in React, and deployed as a static site.
Simulation (Web):
Degraded Constellation
This interactive simulation models the effects of PLA antisatellite operations on U.S. missile warning coverage during a Taiwan Strait contingency. Users strike individual SBIRS and OPIR satellites to observe how constellation degradation simultaneously erodes conventional theater awareness and nuclear early warning, generating the escalation ambiguity that Acton's damage-limitation framework identifies as most dangerous.
Simulation (Web + Local):
"The Coordination Tax"
The Coordination Tax is a browser-based interactive simulation modeling field artillery engagement effectiveness across four reference platforms (M777A2, M109A7 Paladin, M142 HIMARS, 2S33 Msta-SM2) through a dimensionless framework composing Amdahl's Law with exponential target perishability decay. Built in Python with a Streamlit version and a static HTML build that runs entirely client-side, the tool features platform-specific weapon behavior, twenty-two academic citations, seven empirical scenario presets drawn from RUSI commentary on the Russo-Ukrainian War, and live-updating visualizations including a tactical engagement diorama, phase-decomposition timeline, and perishability decay curve. It serves as a supplementary analytical tool to a working paper of the same name currently under development, intended for academic press submission.